The Bitcoin Halving Cycle Volatility Dynamics and Safe Haven-Hedge Properties: A MSGARCH Approach

This paper introduces a unique perspective towards Bitcoin safe haven and hedge properties through the Bitcoin halving cycle. The Bitcoin halving cycle suggests that Bitcoin price movement follows specific sequences, and Bitcoin price movement is independent of other assets. This has significant implications for Bitcoin properties, encompassing its risk profile, volatility dynamics, safe haven properties, and hedge properties. Bitcoin's institutional and industrial adoption gained traction in 2021, while recent studies suggest that gold lost its safe haven properties against the S&P500 in 2021 amid signs of funds flowing out of gold into Bitcoin. Amid multiple forces at play (COVID-19, halving cycle, institutional adoption), the potential existence of regime changes should be considered when examining volatility dynamics. Therefore, the objective of this study is twofold. The first objective is to examine gold and Bitcoin safe haven and hedge properties against three US stock indices before and after the stock market selloff in March 2020. The second objective is to examine the potential regime changes and the symmetric properties of the Bitcoin volatility profile during the halving cycle. The Markov Switching GARCH model was used in this study to elucidate regime changes in the GARCH volatility dynamics of Bitcoin and its halving cycle. Results show that gold did not exhibit safe haven and hedge properties against three US stock indices after the COVID-19 outbreak, while Bitcoin did not exhibit safe haven or hedge properties against the US stock market indices before or after the COVID-19 pandemic market crash. Furthermore, this study also found that the regime changes are associated with low and high volatility periods rather than specific stages of a Bitcoin halving cycle and are asymmetric. Bitcoin may yet exhibit safe haven and hedge properties as, at the time of writing, these properties may manifest through sustained adoption growth. © 2023 by the authors.

Big Data and Predictive Analytics for Business Intelligence: A Bibliographic Study (2000-2021)

Big data technology and predictive analytics exhibit advanced potential for business intelligence (BI), especially for decision-making. This study aimed to explore current research studies, historic developing trends, and the future direction. A bibliographic study based on CiteSpace is implemented in this paper, 681 non-duplicate publications are retrieved from databases of Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC) and Scopus from 2000 to 2021. The countries, institutions, cited authors, cited journals, and cited references with the most academic contributions were identified. Social networks and collaborations between countries, institutions, and scholars are explored. The cross degree of disciplinaries is measured. The hotspot distribution and burst keyword historic trend are explored, where research methods, BI-based applications, and challenges are separately discussed. Reasons for hotspots bursting in 2021 are explored. Finally, the research direction is predicted, and the advice is delivered to future researchers. Findings show that big data and AI-based methods for BI are one of the most popular research topics in the next few years, especially when it applies to topics of COVID-19, healthcare, hospitality, and 5G. Thus, this study contributes reference value for future research, especially for direct selection and method application.

Knowledge integration for resilience among multinational SMEs amid the COVID-19: from the view of global digital platforms

PurposeMultinational small-to-medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are increasingly participating in cross-border digital platforms - especially amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Accordingly, knowledge integration (KI) has become more and more important. In fact, it has been deemed by many as the key to organizational resilience. Given this burgeoning phenomenon, this study aims to explore a path for improving the resilience of multinational SMEs. Through this process, this study also finds a relationship between the KI processes associated with adopting global digital platforms and the resiliency of local-global businesses. Hence, in part, this paper also explores the effectiveness of all these mechanisms. Design/methodology/approachThis study used the stepwise regression method in Stata 16.0 to analyze the direct effects of both horizontal and vertical KI processes on the resilience of local-global businesses. Additionally, t-tests were also used to compare the differences in coefficients between the mechanisms. The sample analyzed comprised data on multinational manufacturing SMEs in the Yangtze River Delta region of China who are using global digital platforms. FindingsThe KI processes of these firms, both horizontal and vertical, positively correlate to resilience. Horizontal KI processes more efficiently increase the resilience of global businesses, whereas vertical processes more efficiently increase the resilience of local businesses. Originality/valueFirst, this study provides insights into how multinational SMEs can improve their resilience in a crisis. In addition to adding to the knowledge of KI processes, this expands the KM literature on pandemics. Second, by creating two KI processes based on global digital platforms and discussing their influence on resilience, this research deepens the understanding of affordance in the KM literature. Third, focusing on the KI research stream, the results shed light on how KI processes might occur and how firms develop their KI processes.

Traditional Chinese Medicine guidelines for coronavirus disease 2019

OBJECTIVE: To summarize the evidence from Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) practice in the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and provide timely clinical practice guidance. METHODS: The guidelines were developed in accordance with the World Health Organization rapid guideline process. The evidence on TCM for COVID-19 from published guidelines, direct and indirect published clinical evidence, first hand clinical data, and expert experience and consensus were collected. The grading of recommendations assessment, development and evaluation (GRADE) method was used to grade the evidence and make the recommendations. RESULTS: Based on the available evidence, the guidelines recommended 17 Chinese medicines for COVID-19: 2 Chinese herbal granules, 7 Chinese patent medicines, and 8 Chinese herbal injections. CONCLUSION: As the literature search was conducted on March, any subsequent versions of these guidelines require an up-to-date literature review. We hope that the evidence summary in these guidelines will be helpful in global efforts to address COVID-19. (C) 2020 JTCM. All rights reserved.

[Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Wuchang district of Wuhan].

Objective: To analyzes epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 and provide evidence for adjustment for COVID-19 prevention and control strategies. Methods: The data of COVID-19 cases in Wuchang district reported as of 19 March, 2020 were obtained from National Notifiable Disease Report System of Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. The software's of Excel 2010, SPSSS 22.0, Arc GIS10.2 and Joinpoint regression program 4.8.0.0 were used for statistical analysis. Results: A total of 7547 COVID-19 cases had been reported as of 19 March, 2020 in Wuchang district, including 5 448 confirmed cases (72.19%), 2009 clinical diagnosed cases (26.62%) and 90 asymptomatic cases case (1.19%). The age of the cases was (56.65±16.25) years and age ranged from 2 days to 105 years among confirmed cases, 2634 were males (48.35%) and 2814 were females (51.65%), 2 492 were retirees (45.74%). A total of 545 health workers were infected with SARS-CoV-2 (7.22% of all cases) including 365 confirmed cases and 5 cases have died. A total of 430 cases of death were reported with case fatality rate of 7.89% (430/5 448), case fatality rate of males (10.9%, 266/2 634) was higher than that of females (5.82%, 164/2 814). The first phase of epidemic peak was from January 24 to January 26, the second phase of epidemic peak was from February 1 to February 5 and there was no one of new confirmed case in one day for the first time on March 18. The first four Streets with the highest incidence rates of confirmed cases were Huanghelou Street (1 043.77/100 000), Ziyang Street (627.97/100 000), Yangyuan Street (503.67/100 000) and Shuiguohu Street (486.02/100 000). Compared with females, aged ≤50 years and mild cases of clinical classification respectively, males (RR=0.690, 95%CI: 0.322-1.478), aged >50 years (RR=11.745, 95%CI: 6.878-20.058), severe cases (RR=2.317, 95%CI: 1.789-3.000) and critical cases of clinical classification (RR=10.794, 95%CI: 7.997-14.569), and gender time-dependent covariate (RR=1.392, 95%CI: 1.053-1.840) were major influencing factors of prognosis of COVID-19 confirmed cases. Conclusions: The gender, ages and occupation of distribution were wide among COVID-19 cases in Wuchang district. Males, aged >50 years, severe cases and critical cases of clinical classification were influencing factors of prognosis of COVID-19 confirmed cases. The standardized management of discharged cases, asymptomatic infected cases and close contact persons were main measures to reduce incidence rates of COVID-19 cases.

[Clinical features of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in the early stage from a fever clinic in Beijing].

Objective: To summarize and analyze the clinical and imaging characteristics of patients with 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in the early stage in Beijing. Methods: A retrospective analysis of clinical and imaging data of 9 patients with 2019 novel coronavirus infection diagnosed in one fever clinicic in Beijing from January 18, 2020 to February 3, 2020. Results: 5 male and 4 female was included in those 9 patients, whose median age was 36 years, and the age range from 15 to 49 years. 8 of these patients had no underlying disease and one suffered from diabetes. 7 patients had a history of travel to Wuhan City or Hubei Province, and one patient was a medical staff. Two family clustered was found. The incubation period was 1 to 6 days. The clinical manifestations were fever in 8 cases (8/9) , dry cough in 5 cases (5/9) , pharyngalgia in 4 cases (4/9) , fatigue in 4 cases (4/9) , body soreness in 4 cases (4/9) , and blocked or watery nose in 1 case (1/9) . Six patients (6/9) had abnormal cell peripheral blood, of which 3 (3/9) had an increased monocyte count, 2 (2/9) had a reduced lymphocyte , and 1 (1/9) had an increased leukocyte count, while the 3 patients had normal cell blood routines. The median of CRP was 16.3 mg/L, including 5 patients with slightly elevated (5/9) , 4 patients with normal values (4/9) . the results of procalcitonin test were negative in5 patients. Three patients were examined by chest X-ray examination, one of which was normal, one case showed infiltrates of right upper lung, and another showed in right lower lung. All patients underwent chest HRCT. And 7 cases (7/9) showed multiple ground glass exudation, including 5 cases (5/7) involved bilateral lungs, 2 cases (2/7) involved unilateral lung, 3 cases (3/7) with patchy consolidation, and 2 cases (2/9) showed no abnormality. Conclusions: The patents with 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in this study generally have an epidemiological history. The clinical manifestations are fever and cough. Peripheral white blood cell counts were most normal And PCT were all negative. Chest HRCT manifested as multiple ground-glass opacities with partly consolidation. Some patients had normal chest radiographs but HRCT showed pneumonia. Some patients had no pneumonia on chest HRCT.